Today’s polls, December 12

Posted: December 13th, 2008 | Author: | Filed under: elections, Polls | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

While I was celebrating my birthday and neglecting the blog, we had no less than five new polls. All of them were conducted right after the primaries in the Likud, and before Netanyahu managed to move Moshe Feiglin, head of the “Jewish Leadership” fraction in the Likud, from the 20th place in the party’s list of candidates, to the 36th place (which will probably leave him out of the Knesset).

I decided to show all the polls in one table, and to add from now on the average of all polls conducted on the same week. I think we can learn a few new things from looking at the numbers this way.

If you click on the table itself, you will be able to see the it at full size. I don’t have the Yedioth Ahronoth poll’s full results; I will update the table when I get them. UPDATE: the Yedioth poll was added.

Most pollsters put the 3 major Arab parties (Hadash, Balad and Raam) into one category (“Arab Parties”). “Ihud Leumi” party changed its name to “Habait Haleumi”.

While grouping the numbers, I noticed a few problems: First (*), as you can see, two of these polls add up to 121 MKs – one more than the Knesset actually has. While I would prefer the pollsters to round their numbers in a way that will add them up to an exact 120, I don’t think this is a big problem for us, since there is really no way to project precisely how the seats will be allocated in the actual election (It has to do with the surplus vote agreements between the parties. You can read more about the allocation of the Knesset seats here).

The second problem (**) is the average for the Green party: it’s now at 1.25, 1.6, which is under the 2% threshold a party needs in order to get into the Knesset (which equals 2.4 MKs). But the real result for the Greens is actually higher – as you can see, in two of the polls the Greens didn’t pass the threshold, so their votes were lost, and the 120 seats (or 121…) were allocated between the parties that did pass the 2%. In these polls, the Green Party showed like it didn’t get ANY votes, but in reality, it could have gotten as many as two MKs (1.67% of the votes). The conclusion is that as long as some of the polls show a party under the threshold while others show it above the threshold, our average for this party is completely useless.

What can be said about the Green Party based on these polls, is that the question of the party entering the Knesset has a considerable effect on the margin between the left and the Right blocks. Whenever the Greens are out, the results get nearer to a landslide (in both cases the Right wins).

All polls show Labor getting a bit stronger, while Kadima losing ground. Notice that on one poll (Kol Israel) the margin between the two parties is down to only 6 MKs.

His own Worst Enemy

Posted: December 11th, 2008 | Author: | Filed under: elections, The Right | Tags: , , , | 1 Comment »

Up until last week, Benjamin Netanyahu ran a well disciplined and executed campaign. But the events of the recent week reminded everyone how Netanyahu was always his own worst enemy.

What he did was try to stop the extreme right wing Likud Member, Moshe Feiglin, head of the “Jewish Leadership” fraction, from winning one of the top spots in the Likud’s list of candidates for the next Knesset. Feiglin ended up winning the 20th place – not too high on the list, but good enough to get him into the Knesset. However, to Feiglin’s delight, the big winners in these primaries were some of the most hawkish figures in the Likud, while Netanyahu’s new guys – like basketball star Tal Brody, ex-general Uzi Dayan and ex-police commissioner Assaf Hefets – ended at the bottom of the list.

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