Today’s poll, Dec 28

Posted: December 29th, 2008 | Author: | Filed under: elections, Polls, war | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Channel 10 conducted a special election poll yesterday, in order to check the effect of the IDF attack in Gaza.

As expected, Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Labor is getting considerably stronger, with 16 MKs – its highest result in the last few months. The Center-Left Block (Labor+Kadima+Meretz+Arab Parties) is getting 61 MKs out of the Knesset’s 120, meaning Benjamin Netanyahu won’t be able to form a coalition, even if his Likud party will be the biggest in the Knesset.

It would be wise, however, to treat these result with caution. Military operations always increase support for the PM and its ministers in the first few days. Approval ratings for PM Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz were somewhere between 80 to 90 percent in the first week of the Lebanon war. A month later, they dropped below 40 (and later on, to the single digit zone).

Second, the split in the “Habait Hayehudi” party prevents the Extreme-Right from reaching its full potential. “Habait Hayehudi” has now only 2 MKs, an incredibly low number, likely to get much higher closer to the election.

And finally, that’s only one poll. Our average of the six weekend polls still shows a solid lead for the Right-Orthodox coalition, led by Netanyahu. We will have more polls toward the weekend, and than it will be possible to tell whether public opinion really changed during the last few days.

Here are the numbers:

Kadima 28

Likud 30

Labor 16

Israel Beitenu 10

Shas 10

Meretz 7

Yahaduth Hatorah 5

Habait Hayehudi 2

Hadash 4

Raam 3

Balad 3

Left-Center Block (Kadima + Labor +Meretz + Hadash + Raam + Balad) 61

Right-Orthodox Block (Likud + Israel Beitenu + Shas + Habait Hayehudi + Yahadut Hatorah) 59

One Comment on “Today’s poll, Dec 28”

  1. 1 daria said at 6:32 pm on December 29th, 2008:

    On CNN’s poll today, asking Will Israel’s military offensive against Hamas targets in Gaza make Israelis safer? 60% answered No

    An after thought: on CNN’s poll from 2005, a majority voted for “Gaza pullout will help peace process”