Today’s Polls, November 20th

Posted: November 20th, 2008 | Author: | Filed under: Polls | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

We have two new polls today, both of them show the Likud continuing to gain momentum. Kadima weakened a bit, but the big story is the total meltdown of the Labor party. The Labor, which has 19 MKs currently, will have 10 MKs in the next Knesset according to Haaretz’s poll, and as little as 8 on Yedioth Ahronoth’s poll. Less than Liberman’s “Israel Beitenu”, less than Shas.
Both polls were conducted a few days after Netanyahu has presented his new “dream team”, which includes former ministers Dan Meridor and Bennie Begin, and former IDF Chief of Staff Moshe “Bugy” Yaalon. With all of them on board, the Likud looks fresh enough to capture some of the “change” spirit everybody is craving for latly. Kadima has no answer for now, but the campaign only started.

It’s interesting to note that the economical crisis is not really present in the campaign so far. Tel Aviv stock exchange fell to a three year’s low today, and people are very nervous about their pensions. It is hard to guess though what effect will this have on the election: on the one hand, Netanyahu has a very good reputation when it comes to the economy; but his neo-liberal agenda is not that popular these days.

Here are the polls (The third number represents the present Knesset):


Kadima 28 26 29
Likud 34 32 12
Labor 10 8 19
Shas 10 11 12
Israel Beitenu 10 9 11
Arab Parties (*) 11 11 10
Ihud Leumi (**) 4 6 9
Meretz 7 7 5
Yahadut Hatorah 6 7 6
Green Party 0 3 0
Gil (senior citizens) 7 0 0

Right-Orthodox Block (Likud + Shas + Yahadut Hatorah + Ihud Leumi + Israel Beitenu): 64 65 50
Center-Left Block (Kadima + Labor + Meretz + Arab Parties + Green Party): 56 55 70

* Most pollsters put the 3 major Arab parties (Hadash, Balad and Raam) into one category (“Arab Parties”). Haaretz’s poll, however, gives Hadash 5 MKs, Balad 2 and Raam 4.
** The right wing parties which formed the “Ihud Leumi” coalition have decided to fully unite under a new name, but the polls still refer to them as “Ihud Leumi” or just “united right wing party”.

There was a third poll published today, by Kol Israel (the public radio). I couldn’t find the full results, so I didn’t list it here. The poll gives the Likud 34 MKs, Kadima 23, Shas 13, Israel Beitenu and Meretz 10, the Arab parties 9 and Labor 8. As far as I know, it’s the first poll ever to give Meretz more MKs than Labor.

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