Posted: July 13th, 2011 | Author: noam | Filed under: Polls, The Left, The Right, The Settlements | Tags: boycott, boycott law, knesset, poll | 2 Comments »
The anti-boycott law is already considered the most controversial to come out of the current Knesset, but it seems that this controversy exists mostly in the media, and outside Israel.
A recent poll, done for the Knesset channel and posted on the rightwing Srugim site, 52 percent of the Israeli public supports the law, and only 31 oppose it – not very different from the majority the law received in the Knesset. In that sense, the Israeli Parliament members represent their voters perfectly.
Srugim didn’t provide the data for the poll or the original questions asked, so we should take these numbers with a grain of salt. Also, the polls was apparently done in the morning following the vote, so the results might change with time.
According to the poll 43 percent of the public think the law will hurt Israel’s image in the world.
Posted: March 29th, 2010 | Author: noam | Filed under: In the News, Polls, The Settlements, the US and us | Tags: Benjamin Netanyahu, ehud barak, Kadima, Likud, narack obama, peace process, poll | 5 Comments »
A poll published today by Maariv revels a sharp decline in PM Netanyahu’s approval ratings, which drops to an all-year-low of 41 percent, with 53 percent of the public now stating that they are “dissatisfied” with the PM.
Defense Minister Ehud Barak also pays the price for his support of Netanyahu’s extreme government, with approval ratings of 38 percent. If elections were held today, Barak’s Labor would have dropped to an all-time-low of 8 out of the Knessets’ 120 seats. Kadima would have remained the largest party with 29 seats, one more than Likud.
These last figures are very telling. Contrary to what the PM and his supporters want us to believe, applying pressure on an extreme Israeli government does bring results. Until the recent confrontation with the US Netanyahu and Barak were riding high in the polls and Kadima was losing ground and getting torn by internal politics; but now the public is concerned by the idea of losing American support (48 percent saying that “Israel’s international statue is deteriorating”) and is not happy with the road Netanyahu is leading this country.
More important, even though most of the public still thinks there is no partner for peace on the other side, 46.2 of Israelis are now accepting the idea of splitting Jerusalem between Israel and Palestine (that’s more than those objecting it) – not at all the consensus around the idea of a “united Jerusalem” like Netanyahu and AIPAC would like us to believe.
President Obama might not be very popular with Israelis these days, but they are certainly listening to what he has to say.
Posted: November 19th, 2009 | Author: noam | Filed under: Polls, the US and us | Tags: no signs of intelligent life in the middle east yet, peace process, poll, vanity fair | 1 Comment »
The seventh question on this month’s Vanity Fair national survey:
Which of the following do you think will happen first?
Cure for cancer found: 40%
End of dependence on oil: 27%
Signs of life in outer space: 12%
Peace in the Middle East: 8%
None will ever happen: 7%
"I've come regarding the settlements freeze"
Posted: November 13th, 2009 | Author: noam | Filed under: In the News, Polls | Tags: abu mazen, avigdor liberman, Barack Obama, Benjamin Netanyahu, hamas, peace process, poll, Tzipi Livni | 4 Comments »
The Israeli public is fairly satisfied with his government. According to a public opinion poll published today in Haaretz, PM Benjamin Netanyahu keeps high ratings and the public generally believes that the absent of negotiations with the Palestinians is Abu-Mazen’s fault. The only surprise in the poll is a majority of Israelis willing to negotiate with Hamas.
Exactly half of the public (50 per cent) is satisfied with the Prime Ministers’ work so far, while only 40 percent are “unsatisfied” (the rest are undecided). Defense Minister Ehud Barak gets 50 percent positive approval as well. The only concern Netanyahu should have is with his Foreign Minister Avigdor Liberman, who is viewed positively only by 38 of the public.
50 percent of the public blames Abu-Mazen for the absence of negotiations between Israelis and Palestinians, while 27 percent think it’s both sides’ fault. 25 percent thinks that the White House treats Netanyahu in a humiliating way (42 percent perceive the administration’s behavior as “reasonable”; only 12 see it as respectful)
If elections were held today, Netanyahu’s Likud would have risen to 33 Knesset seats (they have 27 now), while Livni’s Kadima would have grown to 29 (it has 28). Labor drops from 13 now to 6, and altogether the Right-Orthodox wing is getting stronger, to 72 seats (65 now), while the Center-Left block drops to 48.
The common wisdom is that in times of terror attacks the public moves Right, but now we had almost a year of relative quiet accompanied by an effort for renewal of negotiations, and the Right is getting stronger. This is bad news for those who believe in persuading the Israelis to join the peace effort. The public simply doesn’t want that. As I explained before, the meaning of these numbers is that without intense international pressure, no Israeli leader would be ready for concessions – since it would mean confronting a hostile public opinion. The rational choice for every Israeli leader right now- regardless of its ideology – is to oppose the peace effort. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted: October 31st, 2008 | Author: noam | Filed under: Polls | Tags: arab parties, balad, Benjamin Netanyahu, ehud barak, Green Party, hadash, Ihud Leumi, Israel Beitenu, Kadima, labor, Likud, Meretz, poll, raam, Shas, Tzipi Livni, Yahadut Hatorah | 2 Comments »
It’s the first weekend since the general election for the Knesset was announced, and we have three new polls: in “Haaretz”, the “Jerusalem Post” and the new metro paper “Israel Hayom”. All three polls reflect higher support for the right wing block than the “Maariv” poll from the midlle of the week. On Israel Hayom both blocks have exactly 60 MKs. Haaretz gives a 61-59 advantage to the right over the center-left block. The Jerusalem Post gives the right a 64-56 advantage, with Kadima and Likud tied at 27 and 14 going to Labor. For some reason, the Post didn’t publish the results for the other parties.
The center-left block will be lead by Tzipi Livni, except for the unlikely event of the Labor party getting the same number of MKs (or more) as Kadima, in which case Ehud Barak will lead this block. Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the right wing block, has the upper hand in the coalition game to begin with, since the non-Zionist Arab MKs, which are part of the left-center block, are not considered an eligible part of the government to come. One should also note that we count the Green Party as part of the center-left block, though it might join the right wing after the election. More on the two blocks and on the process of coalition making in future posts.
Here are the Haaretz and Israel Hayom polls:
PARTY // HAARTZ // ISRAEL HAYOM // PRESENT KNESSET
Kadima 31 30 29
Likud 31 31 12
Labor 10 13 19
Israel Beitenu 11 8 11
Shas 10 10 12
Arab Parties (*) 11 10 10
Ihud Leumi 3 6 9
Meretz 5 5 5
Yahadut Hatorah 6 5 6
Green Praty 2 2 -
Gil (senior citizens) – - 7
Right Block (Likud + Israel Beitenu + Shas + Ihud Leumi + Yahadut Hatorah) 61 60 50
Left-Center block (Kadima + Labor + Meretz + Arab Parties + Green/Gil) 59 60 70
Polls published in Israel reflect answers given by likely and decided voters. In many cases they won’t even note the likely-unlikely voters rate, nor the decided-undecided. That is the case with the Haartez poll. Israel Hayom’s poll has 30 percent (!) of people who are not decided or that refused to answer the poll. The Jerusalem Post poll found that 17 percent of the respondents are undecided.
* Most pollsters put the 3 major Arab parties (Hadash, Balad and Raam) into one category (“Arab Parties”). Haaretz’s poll, however, gives Hadash 6 MKs, Balad 3 and Raam 2.
Posted: October 27th, 2008 | Author: noam | Filed under: Polls | Tags: avigdor liberman, Barack Obama, Benjamin Netanyahu, Green Party, Ihud Leumi, Israel Beitenu, John McCain, Kadima, Likud, Meretz, poll, Shas, Tzipi Livni, Yahadut Hatorah | 1 Comment »
The paper I work for, Maariv, published the first poll for the upcoming election. Here are the results:
Kadima: 31 Members of Knesset
Likud: 29 MKs
Israel Beitenu (Avigdor Liberman’s party), Labor, Arab Parties (Hadash + Balad + Raa’m): 11 MKs each
Shas (Sephardic orthodox): 8 MKs
Ihud Leumi (the right wing front): 7 MKs
Meretz (left wing liberal party): 5 MKs
Yahadut Hatorah (Ashkenazi orthodox): 4 MKs
Green Party (not present in the current Knesset): 3 MKs
The magic number in the Knesset is 60 (out of 120 seats). This poll gives the center-left (Kadima + Labor + Meretz + Arabs + Green) a block of 61 MKs, meaning Tzipi Livni will have the upper hand in the battle to form the next government.
However, there are a few things to consider:
First, the left and center usually underperform in the election (or, more accurately, over perform in the polls), and given the current political atmosphere, it is hard to see Livni get over the 30 mark, which is still better than Ehud Olmert did.
Second, Shas hasn’t gotten bellow 10 since the 1992 election, and it’s not going to happen this time either.
Third, Liberman hasn’t reached his full potential, which should be around 14-15 MK. With his anti Arab rhetoric, he has the ability to take votes not only from Likud, but also from Kadima and even Labor.
If I had to guess today, I would estimate the right-religious block crossing the 60, even by as much as 5-6 seats. But we still have a lot of time before the election. For now, it’s clear that Livni is going into the campaign much stronger than one could expect, given her failure to form a government.
By the way, the same pollster (Teleseker) just ran a survey in Israel on the upcoming US presidential election. The winner: John McCain, by a 12% margin. Exactly as in Texas.