The Weekend’s polls, January 24th

Posted: January 24th, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: elections, Polls | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

We have four new polls this weekend: two by the daily papers “Yedioth Ahronoth” and “Maariv”, one by the financial paper “Globes”, and one by the free tabloid “Israel Hayom”. All polls indicate a significant strengthening of the right wing parties. Kadima, which was in a neck to neck battle with the Likud just one months ago, has lost almost a quarter of its support.

Benjamin Netenyahu’s Right-Orthodox block (*) has now almost 66 MKs in our polls average. This will put Netenyahu in a very strong position when the negotiation to form a new coalition begins, and he will be able to choose whether to invite Labor, Kadima or both to his next government. With Ehud Barak’s high approval rating as Defense Minister following the Gaza operation, it is more likely Netanyahu will prefer having Labor in his government, and hope that the fragile Kadima party won’t survive a term in the opposition.

Netanyahu will also be able to form a Right-Wing coalition without both Labor and Kadima, but as I wrote before, it is an unlikely scenario.

Two more things to notice: First, Avigdor Liberman’s “Israel Beitenu” party is getting stronger, and can easily become the 3ed largest party. Second: the Greens and the senior citizens party, “Gil”, didn’t survive the war.


* In the Israeli Parliamentary system, the MK (Member of Knesset) who has the support of the most MKs gets the opportunity to form the new government. That means that the leader of the bigger parliamentary Block will be the next PM. Tzipi Livni will probably have the support of the Arab Parties, the Zionist Left and the Center. Netanyahu will get the Likud, the Orthodox parties and the Extreme-Right. That means the two blocks will look like this:

Right-Orthodox Block: Likud, Israel Beitenu, Habayit Hayehudi, Ha-Ihud Haleumi, Shas, Yahadut Hatorah.
Left-Center Block: Kadima, Labor, Meretz, Hadash, Raam, Balad. To this block we may add the senior citizens’ party (Gil) and the Greens, if they manage to enter the Knesset.

Today’s polls, Jan 8

Posted: January 8th, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: elections, Polls | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | Comments Off

I was called to do a short reserve service with my army unit this week, so I didn’t update the blog.

We have three new polls in the last 24 hours. Our weekly average shows a 4 MKs lead to Benjamin Netanyahu’s Right-orthodox block (*) over Tzipi Livni’s Left-Center block. That means Netanyahu will lead the next government.

Labor’s strengthening in the polls, which we attributed to the war in Gaza, has reached a halt. Ehud Barak has now between 15 to 17 MKs – not too impressive, considering the fact that he enjoys good approval ratings as Defense Minister. It looks like most Israelis want Barak to be in charge of security, and nothing more. When one thinks upon Barak’s term as PM, it sounds like a healthy instinct.

Here is our weekly table of polls. The current Knesset is on the left column; the polls average is on the right. You can see the two blocks on the bottom. Notice that the three Arab Parties – Hadash, Raam, Balad – are shown separately, and so do the two Extreme-Right parties (Ha-Ihud Haleumi & Habayit Hayehudi).



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The Weekend’s Polls, 3.1

Posted: January 3rd, 2009 | Author: | Filed under: elections, Polls, war | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

There are two new polls this weekend, and three altogether since the fighting in Gaza began.

The channel 10 poll was taken just as the operation began, and published early this week (I posted it here as well). Haaretz and Maariv polls were conducted later on and published on Thursday and Friday, respectively. Therefore, it’s interesting to note that all three polls show similar results – Labor getting considerably stronger, to 16 MKs, while the Likud and Right wing parties are loosing some ground.

Kadima also benefits from the war so far. But what’s more important for its leader, Tzipi Livni, is that all polls show the Left-Center Block (Kadima + Labor + Meretz + Arab Parties) at a draw or even leading over the Right-Orthodox Block (Likud + Israel Beitenu + Habait Hayehudi + Shas + Yahadut Hatorah). In the Israeli Parliamentary system, it is the leader of the bigger block, and not the bigger party, who will form the next coalition and become PM.

Both The Greens and the senior citizen’s party, Gil, don’t make it to the Knesset in these polls, thus proving again that when the conflict with the Palestinians takes over, it’s practically impossible to push a different agenda.

Here are the numbers and their average (in the grey column). You can see the two blocks on the bottom. Notice that for some reason, the Channel 10 poll adds up to only 118 MKs.



All pollsters began referring to the Arab parties by their name (”Hadash”, “Balad” and “Raam”), rather than including them under the general “Arab parties” category, as they were ordered to do by The chairman of the Elections Committee, Supreme Court Judge Eliezer Rivlin. I grouped them here for the last time, and starting from next week, I will show each party’s average separately.

Today’s poll, Dec 28

Posted: December 29th, 2008 | Author: | Filed under: elections, Polls, war | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

Channel 10 conducted a special election poll yesterday, in order to check the effect of the IDF attack in Gaza.

As expected, Defense Minister Ehud Barak’s Labor is getting considerably stronger, with 16 MKs – its highest result in the last few months. The Center-Left Block (Labor+Kadima+Meretz+Arab Parties) is getting 61 MKs out of the Knesset’s 120, meaning Benjamin Netanyahu won’t be able to form a coalition, even if his Likud party will be the biggest in the Knesset.

It would be wise, however, to treat these result with caution. Military operations always increase support for the PM and its ministers in the first few days. Approval ratings for PM Ehud Olmert and Defense Minister Amir Peretz were somewhere between 80 to 90 percent in the first week of the Lebanon war. A month later, they dropped below 40 (and later on, to the single digit zone).
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The Weekend’s Polls, Dec 25th

Posted: December 26th, 2008 | Author: | Filed under: elections, Polls | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 1 Comment »

A month and a half to the elections and the numbers are all over the place. Channel 2 gives Kadima 29 MK’s and a lead over the Likud, while Channel 10 gives Kadima only 23 MK’s, with a 12 MK’s advantage to the Likud.

None of the polls give the Center-Left block the advantage. The smallest margin is 58-62, according to the channel 2 poll. That means Netanyahu will lead the next government, regardless of which will be the largest party.

It is, however, clear that the Likud has lost some ground last week. Both Avigdor Liberman’s “Israel Beitenu” and Meretz are getting stronger, while Labor has weakened again. The margin between the blocks has somewhat narrowed, from 8.8 MKs last week to 7.6 today. The public’s attention has shifted in the last few days to the events in Gaza, but it’s too early to see their effect in the polls. 

Here are the polls and their average. You can compare it to last week’s, which is on the right column. Click on the table itself to see it at full size.



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Today’s Polls 10/31

Posted: October 31st, 2008 | Author: | Filed under: Polls | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , | 2 Comments »

It’s the first weekend since the general election for the Knesset was announced, and we have three new polls: in “Haaretz”, the “Jerusalem Post” and the new metro paper “Israel Hayom”. All three polls reflect higher support for the right wing block than the “Maariv” poll from the midlle of the week. On Israel Hayom both blocks have exactly 60 MKs. Haaretz gives a 61-59 advantage to the right over the center-left block. The Jerusalem Post gives the right a 64-56 advantage, with Kadima and Likud tied at 27 and 14 going to Labor. For some reason, the Post didn’t publish the results for the other parties.

The center-left block will be lead by Tzipi Livni, except for the unlikely event of the Labor party getting the same number of MKs (or more) as Kadima, in which case Ehud Barak will lead this block. Benjamin Netanyahu, who leads the right wing block, has the upper hand in the coalition game to begin with, since the non-Zionist Arab MKs, which are part of the left-center block, are not considered an eligible part of the government to come. One should also note that we count the Green Party as part of the center-left block, though it might join the right wing after the election. More on the two blocks and on the process of coalition making in future posts.

Here are the Haaretz and Israel Hayom polls:


Kadima 31 30 29

Likud 31 31 12

Labor 10 13 19

Israel Beitenu 11 8 11

Shas 10 10 12

Arab Parties (*) 11 10 10

Ihud Leumi 3 6 9

Meretz 5 5 5

Yahadut Hatorah 6 5 6

Green Praty 2 2 -

Gil (senior citizens) – - 7

Right Block (Likud + Israel Beitenu + Shas + Ihud Leumi + Yahadut Hatorah) 61 60 50

Left-Center block (Kadima + Labor + Meretz + Arab Parties + Green/Gil) 59 60 70

Polls published in Israel reflect answers given by likely and decided voters. In many cases they won’t even note the likely-unlikely voters rate, nor the decided-undecided. That is the case with the Haartez poll. Israel Hayom’s poll has 30 percent (!) of people who are not decided or that refused to answer the poll. The Jerusalem Post poll found that 17 percent of the respondents are undecided.

* Most pollsters put the 3 major Arab parties (Hadash, Balad and Raam) into one category (“Arab Parties”). Haaretz’s poll, however, gives Hadash 6 MKs, Balad 3 and Raam 2.