A month and a half to the elections and the numbers are all over the place. Channel 2 gives Kadima 29 MK’s and a lead over the Likud, while Channel 10 gives Kadima only 23 MK’s, with a 12 MK’s advantage to the Likud.
None of the polls give the Center-Left block the advantage. The smallest margin is 58-62, according to the channel 2 poll. That means Netanyahu will lead the next government, regardless of which will be the largest party.
It is, however, clear that the Likud has lost some ground last week. Both Avigdor Liberman’s “Israel Beitenu” and Meretz are getting stronger, while Labor has weakened again. The margin between the blocks has somewhat narrowed, from 8.8 MKs last week to 7.6 today. The public’s attention has shifted in the last few days to the events in Gaza, but it’s too early to see their effect in the polls.
Here are the polls and their average. You can compare it to last week’s, which is on the right column. Click on the table itself to see it at full size.
A few technical issues:
The chairman of the Elections Committee, Supreme Court Judge Eliezer Rivlin, ordered the media to refer to all Arab (“Hadash”, “Balad” and “Raam”) parties by their names, rather than including them under the general “Arab parties” category, as all but Haaretz have done so far. On these polls, however, they are still listed simply as “Arab Parties”. We’ll see what happens next week.
As I noted before, I think we should take the channel 2 results with some salt: their pollster, “Panels LTD”, is using only web based polls, as opposed to the telephone polls most pollsters in Israel use, and they have been getting some strange results occasionally.
There is a problem with the Extreme-Right on this week’s polls. The united “Habait Hayehudi” party is falling apart, with some of its MK’s joining MK Arie Eldad’s party, “Hatikva”. Only one pollster published results for this party – channel 2, giving it 3 MKs. I grouped the two parties into one category (“Habait Hayehudi”) in this table, as it is still unclear who will run on which party. Next week is the deadline for the parties to submit their lists of candidates running for the Knesset, so these problems will be sorted out.
Finally, you should ignore the average for the Greens and Gil (senior citizens) parties. I explained here why.